Once a sleepy farm town along the railroad tracks, Broken Arrow is growing up — and out.
While the population booms of the 1980s and ’90s have slowed, the city is still growing at about 2.7% per year. The current pace puts Broken Arrow’s population at 150,000 by 2040.
The city’s median age is a decade older than it was in 1960, and the fastest growing population segment since the Pandemic are people age 65 and older. The city had almost 8,000 children under age 4 a few decades ago, but that number has fallen to 6,500.
Those are just some of the insights from a housing study that the City Council ordered last year as they grapple with how to best encourage housing that serves the city’s changing demographics.
Points Consulting and an advisory committee of city officials, housing stakeholders and city residents helped analyze various sources of data and present a preliminary report. Much of the data came from the Census Bureau, American Community Survey, MLS, ESRI and the state of Oklahoma.
The city also sent out a questionnaire to Broken Arrow residents, asking for their thoughts on housing stock availability, affordability, their vision for the city’s future housing options and the like. More than 4,000 responded.
No easy answers
If the data in the preliminary report is any indication, city planners face a complex task in encouraging a greater range of housing options for a diversifying population.
Among the interesting statistics from the study:
- 72% of housing units in Broken Arrow are owner occupied, which is down from previous decades.
- Broken Arrow’s ratio of home value compared to median household income is 2.9, slightly lower than in Tulsa or Wagoner counties and Oklahoma.
- Rents prices have shot up dramatically since 2019. Farhad Duroga, placemaking manager for the city of Broken Arrow, notes the state of Oklahoma’s own studies show that for an average family to rent or buy a 2-bedroom, 2-bath dwelling it takes 90-99 hours of work per week to pay for it, “which is not a good figure,” he says.
- About 76% of residents work outside of the city limits, which is down from the mid- to upper 80s about 20 years ago, Duroga says.
- The city had almost 8,000 children under age 4 20 years ago, but that number has fallen to 6,500.
When residents were asked how they wanted Broken Arrow to be defined over the next decade, 62% said they wanted to retain its suburban character, 23% favored the city becoming an “economic hub” and 14% wanted the city to be more like a bedroom community.
Consultants noted “vast differences of opinion” on this topic. Many want Broken Arrow want the city to be “quiet and safe” but others desire more urban amenities.
Nearly 32% said they would like to see the city’s housing stock increased, with a focus on single-family homes. Some 34% said no housing stock increase is needed and nearly 20% said they didn’t know.
In general, most respondents were accepting of most housing types if they were located in appropriate areas but there is still distaste for multi-family homes unless they were close to commercial corridors.
Those more in favor of increasing the housing stock were renters, those living in Broken Arrow less than 3 years, and people under 35 or over 55. Those favoring less housing development tended to be longtime residents, current homeowners and people ages 35 to 55.
Consultants analyzed Broken Arrow’s socioeconomic and housing data to 36 other “peer” cities that share some similarities with Broken Arrow.
The cities were located in Georgia, Oklahoma, Colorado, Arkansas, Indiana, Missouri and Texas. They further narrowed the list to the 9 most similar cities based on population, media household income, monthly housing costs, home value appreciation and owner occupied vs. renter occupied dwellings.
The other cities were Round Rock, Texas; Thornton, Colo.; Carmel, Ind.; Lewisville, Texas; Norman, Okla.; Olathe, Kan., Tyler, Texas, and Lee’s Summit, Mo.
The study found Broken Arrow was ranked second in the percentage of households with one or more persons age 65 or older, and the city was sixth in single family home percentage.
Broken Arrow ranked closer to the middle in home value to income ratio, median household income and median home value. Broken Arrow ranked near the bottom in median monthly housing costs.
Just not here
Many residents say all types of housing in Broken Arrow are acceptable if they “stay in their lane.”
“Our affordability, our schools and the safety in our community are things that increase quality of life and increase the growth,” Duroga says.
“The growth is going to happen, and the Planning Commission, City Council and city leadership will must decide if they want it at this rate.”
Brian Points, president of Points Consulting, said his firm must finalize its recommendations and complete a housing forecast and come back “to communicate about what it all means.”
Points noted that in many cities there is some form of constraint or limit on growth such as topography, steep slopes, flood plains, water rights, questions about how much water is available, or land use laws in particular states. Broken Arrow had almost none of those obstacles.
“If you’re going to say, ‘Well, we need to stop now.’ You could have said the same thing 20 or 30 years ago,” Points said.
“So that’s what city leadership’s job is, in large part — to make those kind of trade-offs. Because not all growth is good and you do have to be smart about it.”
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